Chapter 5

Three Horizons and Beyond

For a renewal strategy to respond to the immediate crisis with a view to reducing future liabilities, it must consider three crisis horizons: those that are known, those that are knowable and predictable, and those that are unknowable.

“We are witnessing the largest experiment in comparative governance we are likely to see in our lifetimes. The virus is the control variable.”
Benjamin Bratton, 2020

Horizon 1 
Reacting to (& learning from) the known crisis
Current national responses are shaped by the extent to which the pandemic has taken hold, government capabilities, and civic trust placed in those governments. These responses have surfaced a range of patterns that indicate the need for a fundamental reconfiguration of our governance systems, enabling us to deal more effectively with a new age of risk and to scaffold the rapid transition we are witnessing.
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Horizon 2
Responding to the age of risks & uncertainties
The current crises of work, the social contract and trust, collective psychological trauma, and food security and supply, all call for a fundamental overhaul of public investment and financial management. We need to reduce future liabilities, make better risk provisions, and rethink our public revenue models.
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Horizon 3
Statecraft in the age of risks & uncertainties
Not only do we need to reconfigure our governance to deal with the risks & uncertainties, enabling us to withstand unexpected change, but we also need to be able to thrive on this uncertainty. This requires a new statecraft premised on a different institutional infrastructure, agile architecture for policy and regulation, new forms of legitimacy, and radical devolution of power and investment. A new framework for internationalism and global public interest is also necessary.
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Horizon 1:
Reacting to (& learning from) the known crisis ︎

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